At long last, the dispute between New Hampshire and Michigan over primary election dates is over, after the Michigan Supreme Court gave that state the go-ahead to hold its primary January 15. New Hampshire then announced its primary will be January 8, retaining its first-in-the-nation status. That’s the earliest presidential primary ever and is three weeks earlier than in 2004.
This could be good for Barack Obama. He’s polling extremely well in Iowa, where caucuses will be held five days before the New Hampshire primary, and a strong Iowa showing could give him momentum. In addition, a recent poll shows a majority of likely voters in Iowa favors “new ideas,” which could also benefit Obama and John Edwards over Hillary Clinton.
Another poll, in-depth and conducted for The Associated Press and Yahoo News, finds, not surprisingly, that many voters don’t like Clinton; it also finds 51% overall say likability is either extremely or very important. Who do Democrats like? Obama. Who do they think has the best chance of winning the White House? Clinton.
In this poll Obama is the most likable Democrat, with 25% saying they like him very much and 29% liking him somewhat. Only 19% like Clinton very much and 22% somewhat. When asked which candidate they would most like to go on vacation with, Clinton is on top with 22%. She is also on top – with 39% — as the one they would least like to vacation with.
On the Republican side, the likability findings fly in the face of recent New Hampshire polls showing Mitt Romney’s support now surpassing Rudy Guiliani’s. Romney is liked very much by only 8% of those surveyed and liked somewhat by 20%. Guiliani, though, enjoys 18% liking him very much and 28% somewhat. Slightly more than half think Guiliani has the best chance of winning next November, while Romney is a distant fourth at 14%.
I don’t think Hillary Clinton is a shoo-in in New Hampshire. Nobody feels like a shoo-in right now and New Hampshire voters have a history of going their own way. By the same token, Ron Paul might surprise the pundits.
Those of us with long political memories recall the 1992 primary, when Bill Clinton jubilantly declared himself “the comeback kid.” Remember why? Because after the Gennifer Flowers mess, he came in second in New Hampshire.
He lost to the late Senator Paul Tsongas. People liked Tsongas. He was a likable guy.
Fellow wonks can find a 21-page PDF of the full AP/Yahoo poll results here.
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By the way, Tsongas’s widow Niki won a special election last month to fill out the term of longtime Massachussetts Congressman Marty Meehan, who resigned to become Chancellor of the University of Massachussetts at Lowell. Her late husband once held the seat.
It’s pretty ridiculous that so many voters value personal qualities over politics.
-Brad
Brad – After exploring your fun and interesting site, I’d have to say there’s not a lot we’d agree on politically, but I certainly agree with you on that. The dismally low turnout rate for national elections is upsetting too.