From Scratch

Tonight’s tracking polls for WMUR and CNN show Barack Obama and John McCain retain their leads for their parties’ primaries tomorrow. Obama leads Democrats with 39% and McCain tops Republicans with 31%, down one percentage point from yesterday. Obama’s lead over Hillary Clinton is also down by one percentage point; she is at 30% now. The polls for both parties have a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

Nearly half the voters in this primary are Independents. The poll finds among registered Independents who have made up their minds, 60% intend to vote in the Democrats’ primary. That’s up from 51% on Sunday.

There’s still some uncertainty among those registered to the two major parties. Among Democrats, 21% say they’re still undecided while 29% of Repubicans have yet to make up their minds.

The entire poll can be found here.

Things to watch:

Traditionally, candidates in this primary who lead at the end and go on to win usually win by a greater margin than polls indicated. (Update: this was borne out by McCain’s 37% win.) And look for a big turnout tomorrow, not just because of the great interest this year but especially because the weather will not hamper voters. After sub-zero (F) temperatures last week, New Hampshire is expected to enjoy high temperatures tomorrow in the 40’s and 50’s. Polling places have staggered openings, beginning at 6AM, except for tiny Dixville Notch — population 74 — and tinier Hart’s Location, which vote at midnight. Both are tucked away high in the White Mountains.

Update 12:08 AM - The Dixville Notch ballots — all 17 them — have been counted. The vote went like this:

GOP
John McCain - 4
Mitt Romney - 2
Rudy Guiliani - 1

Democrats
Barack Obama - 7
John Edwards - 2
Bill Richardson - 1

That’s right. Not a single vote for Mike Huckabee or Hillary Clinton.

Tags: John McCain, political news